Get to understand expected value (EV)

• 30.06.2025 7:33 pm
• Helen
• 0 Comments

Everything about poker revolves around money making, the unfortunate thing is the fact that making right decisions is not always a sure way of winning. It is possible for you to play great poker and still emerge a loser. This is because; poker is also a game of luck to some extent.

However, it is possible to influence the outcome of the game by correctly using the Expected Value (EV) concept.

EV explained

All decisions a player makes on the table can either be positive EV or negative EV. A positive EV Is a favorable/good choice which helps you to make wins at the end of the game while a negative EV is an unfavorable/bad choice that will cost you money at the end.

Expected value refers to the average of the amount in cash you either lose or win on a bet.

Look at it this way; you place a bet with your friend to a flip of a coin. You are to receive $5 each time it lands with heads up and your friend is to get $5 from you each time the coin lands tails up, when you win equally, 50/50 this would be a neutral EV bet.

When you decide to be paid $10 for your heads and still pay your opponent $5 for his tails, this now turns to a positive EV. You still get to go 50/50 on the flip wind but you get paid double for every win you record of what you would pay him in the event you lose.

The EV of the flip is now $2.50

In math terms what this means is that:

Your outcome is the event of tails is -$5 while heads outcome would be +$10. This is to say 50% of the time you will get $10 while 50% of the times you get to lose $5.

$10(.5) – $5(.5) is equals to +$2.5

This is to say that in poker, you only need to place bets that show signs of positive outcomes not ones with negative outcomes. This is the only chance you have of making the money.

Take this example:

You are holding with the board with

Your opponent flips his hand over accidentally in the event of betting $10 in pot wort6h $60

You note he holds , a top pair aces and a great kicker

In your case, you posses straight draw as well as a flush draw. The only way for you to win is if the by the fall of a spade or there comes a 4 or a 9.

The spades on the deck count to nine and 3 non spades 4s and 3s non spade 9s

This gives a total of fifteen outs.

There are players who dies by EV while other live, and some not quite.

There are 45 cards on the decks as you have the 7 to make up 52 cards. This means that 15/45 cards will make you win.

You have a 2:1 odd of hitting your hand. The pot odds have you at 7:1 as you would have to make a $10 call in order to win the pot worth $70.

This is a positive EV bet as you would win twice your investment on average.

In the above scenario, it is clear of the importance of EV in poker as the game is bound to fluctuate at some points.

In smaller details, you will always win and lose even when you play great poker. The difference is, good players will make money overall while poor player will lose money overall. The reason this is so is the fact that a good poker player will ensure they only makes positive EV while poor players will play without giving EV the attention it deserves.

In order to be a good player, always look for bets that show +ve prospects.